The most closely watched, and often most controversial, of the Nobel Prizes will be announced on Friday, October 10th, when the Norwegian Nobel Committee in Oslo names the laureate of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. This year, the decision comes against a backdrop of intensifying global conflicts, humanitarian disasters, and a crisis for democratic institutions, leading to an expanded field of 338 candidates—244 individuals and 94 organizations.
The secrecy surrounding the nomination process, a hallmark of the prize, means the official list of candidates will not be revealed for 50 years. However, public speculation, nominations confirmed by qualified submitters, and the current state of world affairs offer strong clues about who the committee might choose to honor.
The Frontrunners and Their Causes
The current global landscape, characterized by brutal wars and the decimation of the free press, has elevated several key figures and organizations to the forefront of the discussion:
* Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms (ERR): This network of approximately 10,000 volunteers is widely considered a leading contender. Their tireless work in providing food, medicine, and shelter amidst the devastating conflict in Sudan speaks directly to the humanitarian aspect of Nobel's mandate.
* Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ): The year leading up to the 2025 prize saw a record number of journalists killed in conflict zones, particularly the Israel-Gaza war. Awarding the CPJ would send a powerful message about the essential role of a free press in maintaining peace and democracy.
* International Courts: Both the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the International Criminal Court (ICC) are frequently mentioned. As the world struggles to hold state and non-state actors accountable for their actions, recognizing these institutions would underscore the Nobel Committee's commitment to international law and global justice.
* Yulia Navalnaya: The widow of Russian dissident Alexei Navalny has emerged as a significant symbol of democratic resistance against authoritarianism. Following her husband's death, her continued fight for human rights and against corruption has placed her among the top individual nominees.
The Role of Grassroots Voices
Beyond the high-profile organizations, the committee often selects individuals championing human rights at the grassroots level, particularly in regions facing severe oppression. Notable names rumored to be nominated this year include:
* Mahrang Baloch (Pakistan): A physician and activist advocating fiercely against enforced disappearances and systemic oppression in Balochistan.
* **Chow Hang-tung (Hong Kong): Nominated for her courageous and relentless work for democracy and human rights in Hong Kong.
* Issa Amro (Palestine): Recognized for his non-violent struggle to protect the basic rights of Palestinians from oppression.
The Perennial and the Controversial Nominees
The Peace Prize often attracts high-profile, and sometimes contentious, political nominations.
* Donald Trump: The former US President has been nominated for his efforts in brokering peace agreements, such as the Abraham Accords. However, long-time Nobel observers suggest his chances remain slim, arguing that the committee generally prefers sustained, multilateral efforts over short-term diplomatic achievements, and his rhetoric is often seen as contradictory to a peace perspective."
* Climate Activists: Figures like Greta Thunberg and Vanessa Nakate continue to be in the running, reflecting the committee's expanded interpretation of peace to include climate justice, a recognition that environmental collapse is a driver of conflict.
The Selection Process: A 50-Year Veil of Secrecy
The selection of the Nobel Peace Prize laureate is an eight-month process overseen by the five-member Norwegian Nobel Committee.
* Nomination Deadline: The window for nominations—only accepted from a select, qualified group of people like heads of state, university professors, and past laureates—closes on January 31st. Self-nominations are strictly forbidden.
* Shortlisting and Review: From February to August, the Committee and its permanent advisers compile a shortlist and conduct detailed reviews and expert assessments of the candidates.